It’s only late June, but we can already conclude that 2015 is going to be a super weird year with respect to the top overall selection in fantasy football drafts this fall. There are six contenders that we believe could have a legitimate case to be taken first overall, but in the end there can be only one – but let’s review ’em all anyway! Here are the contenders for the top overall pick of 2015.
Editor’s Note: If you haven’t already, be sure to watch our top pick video, and while you’re at it, be certain to sign up to play DFS with us at DraftKings – we’re going to be devoting a ton of time and effort to helping everyone win serious cash this year each week in addition to dominating your yearly league.
Bell won owners an awful lot of fantasy leagues in 2014. Look at the gaudy numbers: 2100+ total yards, 4.7 YPC, 83 receptions, and 11 total TD’s. That’s video-game status, and at the end of 2014 Bell was definitely in the running to be the No. 1 overall selection for the 2015 season. I’d definitely consider taking him first…if he wasn’t suspended for the first three games of 2015. When you consider there are only 16 games that count, that’s 20% of the season, and that’s assuming he plays all of the remaining 12. As of today, his ADP on Fantasy Football Calculator sit’s at 3.9 – squarely inside the top 5. I think Bell deserves to be off the board inside the top 15 picks, but I can’t say that I believe 80% of a Bell season is better than 100% of some of the other options mentioned here, and based on that I can’t make a legit case for him at No. 1 overall.
Forte posted another banner year in 2014 despite only rushing for 3.9 YPC. He totaled 1038 yards rushing, and added another 808 yards receiving due to an obscene 102 (!) receptions while managing 10 total TD. Talk about a PPR monster. Forte should be a workhorse again in 2015, but we’re a bit worried due to his age (he’ll turn the magical 30 in December) and overall workload (2200+ game touches since 2008). He’s still a lock to be taken in the first, however.
Peterson’s talent in undeniable, and it would be hard to make a case that he isn’t the best RB of his generation. Many industry pundits have Peterson at number one overall, making the case that the year off will help him in the long run. We’re not so sure. Peterson, like Forte, is 30, and has similar wear on the tires (2200+ career touches). It’s a lock that he’s stayed in shape during his year off, but in shape is different than football shape. Added to the mix are the rumored distrust and trade demands between Peterson and the Vikings front office. Again, Purple Jesus will be taken in the first round – we just won’t be taking him.
Murray finally put it all together in 2015, dominating the league for 2250+ all-purpose yards, 13 TD, and a ridiculous 4.7 YPC. The Cowboys hitched their wagon to him, and he didn’t disappoint. If Murray were still in a Dallas uniform, he might be the consensus first pick. His outlook is definitely murkier, however, after signing in Philadelphia in the offseason. There’s no doubt he’s going to lose touches in the quick-hitting, pass-friendly Chip Kelly offense. Of greater concern is the presence of both Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles, who will both siphon off a few carries per game. Sproles in particular can be counted on to make sure that Murray catches far less than the 57 receptions he racked up in 2014. The Eagles are going to score their points, and Murray should get all of the goal line work, so he’s still a high-value, first round grab. But for us the uncertainty cancels out the upside in this case.
If you’re looking to solidify the QB slot in the first round, there’s only one choice: Luck. All he did was throw 40 TD in 2014, against only 16 INT, and rushed for three more TD. Tack on 4700+ yards passing, and you have yourself a fantasy monster. The Colts added Andre Johnson and Frank Gore to the fold in the offseason, and are bringing back T.Y. Hilton, Coby Fleener, and Dwayne Allen. It’s an understatement to say that Luck’s weapons are extremely strong. The Colts are going to score, and score often. The argument against taking Luck first overall is all about the available depth at the QB–position. One can take viable, top 10 QB’s anytime within the first couple of rounds, and in most formats you almost have to try to not end up with an elite QB. We love Luck, but don’t think there’s enough separating him from, say, Aaron Rodgers to pay the first round price tag.
As Brent said, Charles is as close to a lock to finish with 10+ total TD as you can get in the first round. You have to like that about him – you know what you’re getting. He’s definitely a monster and a lock to be a first rounder, and deservedly so. The resume is there, and so is the pedigree. You’ll recall FST actually picked him as our first overall guy last year, and he responded with 1300+ total yards and 13 TD to go with it. We still love Charles in the first (current ADP, which we’d agree with, has him at #3 overall), but despite it all, he’s still not our top pick this year.
All these names will be off the board within the first ten picks in 2015. They’re all great names that should have great years. But we believe the top overall pick for fantasy football 2015 should be…
We’re so enamored with Lacy in 2015 there should be a restraining order in play. Why? All the factors you love to see for a monsters season…they’re all coming together at the same time. First off, we love players on teams that score tons of points. Green Bay scored 486 points in 2014, good for the top spot overall. You like to see a guy with a nose for the end zone, and Lacy has 24 total TD over two seasons. He’s young (25), has almost no tread on the tires (607 total career touches) and is built like a brick (5’11, 231 lbs). Opposing defenses can’t completely key on him, since they have Randall Cobb, Jordy Nelson, and the running ability of Aaron Rodgers to contend with. Take it all into account, and Lacy at the top spot not only feels like it has monster upside, but as noted in the video, it feels downright safe. High floor, high ceiling – that’s’ what we love in a top pick, and that’s why we’re going Lacy.