Many fantasy owners put a lot of emphasis on trying to identify sleepers and breakout candidates, however not drafting potential busts can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at several 2016 fantasy football busts or overvalued players not to draft too early, or avoid completely on draft day. If you have any draft day questions feel free to post them in our Fantasy Football Forum.
Touchdowns at the receiver position can be a bit flukey and that’s why we aren’t buying the 14 that Baldwin had last season. That number will almost certainly go down and we expect Tyler Lockett to steal some targets from Baldwin. Don’t make the mistake of just looking at Baldwin’s numbers and thinking he could potentially be a WR1 for your fantasy team in 2016.
Walker had a career season in 2015 and while I still like his upside I am expecting a regression. The 32-year-old tight end was one of the only options in the passing game for Tennessee, but now they have Rishard Matthews and hopefully a more mature Dorial Green-Beckham. I think Walker could still be a top ten tight end, just don’t be surprised if his numbers go down across the board
It’s hard to figure out which C.J. Anderson is going to show up from week to week and that uncertainly makes me wonder how much of a hold he has on that starting gig. Devontae Booker was drafted by the Broncos in the 4th round in this year’s draft and he is a legit running back. He averaged five yards per carry during his career at Utah and averaged over 150 total yards a game his senior year. If given the chance I think Booker could take over the starting job and that worries me when thinking about drafting Anderson.
Hurns scored a good amount of his fantasy points last season in the fourth quarter with junk yards and those are hard to count on from week to week. The Jags as a team should be better this season and this could mean less fourth quarter targets for Hurns. At best I see Hurns just matching his numbers from 2015.
I think Benjamin could potentially be over 1,000 yards and flirt with double digit touchdowns this year, even with that being said he is being over drafted in some leagues. I have seen him go as high as the early third round and I think that’s just a bit too early. The Panthers don’t throw the ball a ton compared to other high powered offenses and Benjamin is coming off a major injury. Even though I like Benjamin’s upside I wouldn’t do anything crazy on draft day to get him on your squad.
Forte still has some left in the tank and he should be productive when given the touches. The issue I have with Forte for 2016 is that Bilal Powell is a great football player and he is much younger. This could turn into a nasty 50/50 timeshare in New York and I think the days of Forte consistently getting 15+ touches a game are over.
I absolutely love Reed in PPR leagues this year and I think there is a chance that he could end the season as the No. 1 tight end in that format. The only issue is his extensive injury history. The guy has missed 14 games so far in his three year career and you have to take that into account when thinking about drafting Reed. We think he should be the second tight end off the board, just don’t do anything crazy and take him in inside the top 20 picks.
I like Elliott and think he will have a great season, I just don’t think he should be drafted within the first five picks. I have seen Elliott ranked as high as the No. 1 overall running back and that’s a little too scary for me. He is certainly someone to get excited about, just make sure you aren’t getting overly excited on draft day.
I think there is a legit chance that Nelson rebounds and has a great season, but I am not willing to use a top 15 pick to find out. He is coming off a major injury and there are no guarantees that the Packers offense returns to their previous glory. Unless Nelson slips into the third round I am going to let someone else take the gamble on the 31-year-old receiver.
Treadwell is certainly a special talent and it’s unfortunate for him that he landed in Minnesota. The Vikings just don’t throw the ball enough for a rookie receiver to have huge fantasy value. Long term I like Treadwell’s upside, but don’t expect much out of him this season.