Many fantasy owners put a lot on emphasis on trying to identify sleepers and breakout candidates, however not drafting potential busts can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at several fantasy basketball busts or overvalued players not to draft too early, or avoid completely on draft day. If you have any draft day questions feel free to post them in our Fantasy Basketball Forum.
If Lopez was guaranteed to play even 70 games we would probably rank as a top five center this year but that is a long shot at best. Over the past three seasons Lopez has played a total of 96 games. The talent is undeniable but the fact he is going in the second round paired with this injury risk makes him one guy I will not have on any of my teams this season.
We could possibly put all Spurs on this list for one simple reason, head coach Greg Popovich. Not a single player on the Spurs will average over 30 minutes a game. Furthermore, there will be the random DNP coach’s decision for all the starters down the stretch to rest them for the playoffs. Similar to Lopez the talent for Parker is there but the minutes are a key factor when drafting and Parker will just not have enough to warrant his average draft position.
Lin is on this list for a couple of reasons. The first one being he is more hype than substance and the other being Steve Nash will actually cut into his minutes this year. Lin has never lived up to that stretch he had as a Knick and only averaged 12.5 points with dishing out just over four assists a game last year. He is an ok player in the NBA but nothing special. Leave him be and let the Laker fan in your league draft him.
Similar to Parker the fact that Ginobili plays on the Spurs hurts him due to the lack of minutes he will play this season. One factor that also hinders Ginobili is that he is getting older and it is starting to show. His numbers continue to decease and the injuries keep piling up. There is always someone that over drafted Ginobili in the middle rounds based on his name, do not be that guy (or gal).
Kyle Korver is probably the greatest shooter on the planet but that does not warrant the fact he is being drafted around the 60th overall pick. Beside the threes and solid percentages he does not offer much more to a fantasy team. On the plus side he should log well over 30 minutes a night as the Hawks rarely sit their starters but there is no reason to pay such a high price tag on a specialist.
Well, you know the first reason Rose made this list, his health. Two non-contact knee injuries has sidelined Rose for basically two years so there is a ton of risk for that reason. Furthermore, he did not look like his old self during the FIBA World Champions. He shot extremely poor and his explosion was just not there. Rose is going in the third round of most fantasy leagues. I believe it is much safer and smarter to wait a round to get a guy like Ty Lawson. Even if Rose plays a full season his numbers will be only slightly better than Lawson and that is a big if.
I just do not get it, Noel is going before pick 50 in most fantasy basketball drafts. Two years ago he was the seventh overall pick due to his lack of offensive ability. Sure, he should be a nice blocks and steals player on a fantasy team but I do not think he will even average 10 points a game.
Not sure if anyone has heard but things have changed quite a bit in Cleveland. With the return of LeBron James and Kevin Love joining the team Waiters will see a regression simply since he will not get nearly as many shots. I would not at all be surprised if Waiters points per game went from 16 to closer to 12 this upcoming fantasy basketball season.
Deron Williams’ numbers were not too poor a season ago averaging over 14 points and six assists but we cannot sign off on drafting him over the likes of Eric Bledsoe which is currently happening. In fantasy basketball you want to take players with high ceiling and there is little to no chance Williams far surpasses his numbers from a season ago. It is not worth a second or even a third round pick to get those statistics so let someone else draft him.
Thomas was great last year, putting up over 20 points during the 2013-2014 season but fantasy basketball is not all about last year’s statistics. It is all about a player’s talent and their opportunity. The fact that Thomas is now in Phoenix vastly hurts his overall value. He will be the sixth man on that team and due to the playing time reduction his numbers will certainly decease year over year. Do not look at his points from a season ago and snag him in the middle rounds, because it is not worth it.