Many fantasy owners put a lot on emphasis on trying to identify sleepers and breakout candidates, however not drafting potential busts can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at several 2016 fantasy baseball busts or overvalued players not to draft too early, or avoid completely on draft day. If you have any draft day questions feel free to post them in our Fantasy Baseball Forum.
Beltre has had an amazing career and one could even argue a hall of fame career, but he just isn’t the same player. His numbers have been on the decline for the last four years and at this point I think it’s fair to question if he will ever bat over .300, or have over 20 home runs again. At 36 years old I think it’s time to let someone else grab him in your draft, unless he slips until about the 90th pick or so.
Crush Davis just got PAID! and honestly that is the main thing that worries me for his 2016 campaign. He just signed a seven year $161 million dollar deal and I am a bit worried that this might impact him concentration. When you look at his career stats they are all over the place and it’s hard to guess which Chris Davis is going to show up.
Kemp had a solid 2015 season and my fear is that owners will get overly excited about his potential heading into this year. His average has been on the decline over the last few years, he is one year older and let’s not forget about his injury history. For where Kemp is being drafted there are many other younger outfielders that have just as much potential and they are more exciting picks.
It pains me to have Billy on this list, but we had to do it. It’s so easy to get excited about his speed and draft him too early, later realizing that he doesn’t do anything else for your team. If he can get his average up then I don’t think him stealing 75 bases is not out of the question, just don’t expect any power numbers out of the speedster.
It’s no secret I am not a fan of A-Rod and I was hoping he would crumble upon his return to baseball. Not only did he not crumble, but he actually had a productive season. The guy is still over 40 years old though and he has bad hips and I am sure many other aches that come with old age. Another minus is depending on your league he might only be able to play in a utility spot, so keep that in mind on draft day. Proceed with extreme caution with Rodriguez this season.
Kinsler is getting up there in age at 33 and while he can still produce I wouldn’t recommend drafting him as a top seven second baseman for 2016. His numbers have been on a decline since 2011 and was only able to produce 11 home runs last year in 624 at bats. It’s certainly possible that Kinsler ends the year as a top ten second baseman, but at around the 80th pick where he is currently going I would rather take a gamble on a younger player like Rougned Odor or Kolten Wong.
I think Troy still has something left in the tank and I believe he will finish the year as top ten shortstop. The only thing I don’t like about him is how high you have to draft him if you want him on your team. There are some solid young shortstops out there this year and I would rather take a gamble on a guy like Francisco Lindor, Xander Bogaerts or Corey Seager and hope they are the next big thing.
Call it an educated guess, a feeling, or even a hunch, I just don’t think Ortiz can do it again at the age of 40. True as of now he hasn’t shown much signs of wearing down and being a DH doesn’t put a ton of strain on his body, I just have a feeling that this is the year he starts to break down. He will still be a nice source of power, just don’t do anything crazy on draft day to get this old man on your team.
Puig is the perfect example of when the excitement of what could happen outweighs what is actually happening. Don’t get me wrong Puig has had some nice success with his time in the bigs, but he has yet to put together a complete fantasy season the justifies his current draft position. We certainly think Puig should get drafted within the first 90 picks or so, just don’t go crazy and take him in the first handful of rounds.
It was awesome when Strasburg burst onto the scene back in 2010, he was untouchable and looked to be the next big thing at starting pitcher. After blowing out his elbow though he has never been the same and it looks like owners are still holding onto the Strasburg from five years ago. He hasn’t lost the ability to strike guys out, but he hasn’t had a sub 3.00 ERA since 2011 and I need to see more out of him before I call him a top ten or even top 15 fantasy starting pitcher.