Many fantasy owners put a lot on emphasis on trying to identify sleepers and breakout candidates, however not drafting potential busts can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at several 2015 fantasy baseball busts or overvalued players not to draft too early, or avoid completely on draft day. If you have any draft day questions feel free to post them in our Fantasy Baseball Forum.
Didi has some big shoes to fill with Derek Jeter out of the picture and unfortunately I don’t think he is going to do all that great. He does have a bit of an upside, but if he wasn’t the Yankees shortstop I don’t think he would even be in the talks as a possible player for your fantasy team. There are plenty of other young shortstops that have even bigger upsides than Didi and I would let the Yankees fan in your league waste their pick.
There is certainly still a chance that the 32 year old Verlander could return to his old form, but at this point I would say that’s a big if. His numbers have been on a decline for each of the last three years and it just doesn’t look like he has it anymore. Even though the early reports are positive on Verlander this spring training, I still don’t think he is worthy of any type of decent pick on draft day.
I know Cole has an exciting fastball and he is a fun pitcher to watch, but you can’t let that cloud your judgment on draft day. He missed time last year with shoulder fatigue and overall he only had a slightly above average season. Currently his ADP is around 80 and there are at least a handful of young pitchers that have just as big of a fantasy upside that are going 20 or 30 picks later. I say let someone else grab him at 80 and take a guy like Jacob DeGrom 30 picks later.
I understand why people are so excited about Gómez, but there is still no reason why he should be drafted in the first round. He has been in the league since 2007 and he has never had over 75 RBIs, never hit over .285, and he has never had more than 25 home runs. When I draft a player in the first round I am hoping to draft the potential number one fantasy player for that year and in my opinion that will never be Gómez. I get that he is good at everything, but with my first round pick I can assure you I will be drafting someone that could be great at something and good at everything else.
Puig is one of the more exciting young players in baseball and because of that you will have to overpay for him if you want him on your team this year. He is currently getting drafted between the 20th and 30th picks and that’s a little too early in my opinion. Puig’s numbers after the all-star break weren’t great and there are too many question marks around him this year.
Don’t get me wrong, I think Iwakuma is a solid pitcher and I think he will have another nice year. My issue with him is that he is 35 years old and during his time in the bigs he has been good but not great. With an ADP in the top 100 he is being drafted over a good amount of the top young arms in the game that could potentially be top tier guys next year. At that point in the draft I would rather gamble on a young arm in the hopes of finding the next Clayton Kershaw, rather than use my pick on old man Iwakuma.
Harper has been on this list for each of the last two years and each year he hasn’t disappointed as an overvalued player. He is still being slightly over drafted in my opinion with an ADP of inside the top 30 and at that point in the draft I say let someone else take him. Harper has all the talent in the world, but until he shows me he can be a top fantasy outfielder I think it’s safer to take a more proven player that early in the draft.
I am a big fan of Rendon and I think he has a huge upside, I just have a hard time respecting his ADP. I just can’t help but think of Jason Kipnis from a year ago. He was an unproven young second baseman with a big upside that was being drafted inside the top 20 picks and he turned out to be a big disappointment. There is no doubt in my mind that Rendon will be a top five second baseman, I just don’t think he is worth the risk for where you have to draft him.
I have always been a fan of Matt Holliday as a fantasy outfielder and that was mainly because of his great batting average and solid power. The .308 life time hitter however, had his worst batting average of his career in 2014 at .272 and his lowest home run total since 2005. At 35 years old I think it’s safe to say that Holliday is on the decline in his career and I am not expecting a rebound year in 2015. He is still be drafted around some solid young talent and at this point in his career I don’t think Holliday is worthy of a mid round pick.
An impressive stat for McCann is that he has hit at least 20 home runs in each of the last seven years. With that being said you can almost guarantee that his power stats will be there, but that’s about all you are going to get. McCann has see his typically solid average fall below .240 two of the last three years and at this point in his career I would rather gamble on a younger catcher than draft McCann hoping that he will go back to his old self.