After three weeks throwing money down the drain, Week 4 was finally a hit. And if you mixed and matched my picks with some of yours, it hopefully was for you as well. Let’s try to keep it going with these pivot picks for Week 5 of the NFL FanDuel Sunday Million.
On Sunday, I turned one $7 entry into $40, finishing 1,151 out of 336,134 total entries. My good week was highlighted by one great chalk play in Todd Gurley, one great (sort of) pivot play in DeAndre Hopkins, and one amazingly good (and lucky) kicker in Greg Kuerlein. Also, Deshaun Watson was my honorable mention pivot at QB, but I wasn’t smart enough to roster him.
Here’s a look at the winning lineup and my picks from Week 4. Then this week’s top pivots.
Week 4 Winning Lineup
Total Points: 202.22
Deshaun Watson: $7,300 salary; 34.72 points; 6.3% owned
Todd Gurley: $8,000 salary; 31 points; 19.6% owned
Le’Veon Bell: $8,600 salary; 32.6 points; 10.7% owned
DeAndre Hopkins: $7,300 salary; 21.7 points; 16.2% owned
Keenan Allen: $7,300 salary; 16.3 points; 15.4% owned
Larry Fitzgerald: $6,700 salary; 11.2 points; 22% owned
Charles Clay: $5,300 salary; 13.7 points; 13% owned
Greg Zuerlein: $4,900 salary; 27 points; 3.3% owned
Pittsburgh Steelers: $4,500 salary; 14 points; 3.9% owned
Week 3 Picks
Marcus Mariota: 17.74 points; 2.35 owned
C.J. Anderson: 13.2 points; 8.3% owned
DeAndre Hopkins: 21.7 points; 16.2% owned
Jimmy Graham: 8.1 points; 8.9% owned
Chalk: Aaron Rodgers ($9,500), Russel Wilson ($8,000)
Why: The matchup between Green Bay and Dallas is projected to be Sunday’s highest scoring game (53.5). Wilson is coming off two straight excellent fantasy performances and the matchup with the Rams won’t scare enough people away.
With some significant injuries affecting quarterbacks and Tom Brady playing Thursday, there are not a ton of attractive QB options in Week 5. But Wentz makes an attractive pivot with the Cardinals traveling across the country to play a 1PM Eastern game.
Wentz has been consistent so far this year, scoring between 13 and 26 FanDuel points through his first four games, but he’s also flashed the potential he showed in 2016 before his O-line was depleted by injuries. I think Arizona’s above average defense will keep ownership low, but if he can exceed 20 points with ownership below 6%, he’ll be tremendously valuable in Week 5.
Dak would be my top QB pivot this week if not for his past two performances and that 53.5 over/under. Those factors should keep his ownership around 11-12%.
Green Bay has also allowed the fifth fewest FanDuel points to opposing signal callers this year, but that figure is entirely misleading. All in all, Dak won’t be the highest or lowest owned quarterback of the week, but after scoring between 17 and 24 FanDuel points in each of Dallas’ first 4 games, he’s a safe option amongst a bunch of meh this week.
CHALK: Ezekiel Elliot ($8,900); Todd Gurley ($7,800)
Why: Nothing about Elliot (Green Bay) or Gurley’s (Seattle) matchups will scare enough people away to prevent them from being in the top 3 in ownership this week.
Provided he plays, Hyde’s main asset is his safety, as he’s been one of the more consistent running backs in fantasy through the first quarter of 2017.
Indianapolis’ run defense is significantly improved from the last couple years, but they Colts have already allowed six rush touchdowns this season – second most in the NFL.
Hyde will be a popular option in cash games, but lingering questions about his injured hip should depress ownership enough to make him a worthwhile tournament option too.
McCoy’s been reliable this season, but he hasn’t quite been what fantasy owners drafting him as a top 15 player expected. He’s had some tough matchups, though, and it doesn’t appear to get much better in Cincinnati this weekend.
McCoy isn’t as attractive as top tier guys like Elliot, Gurley or Kareem Hunt this week, but he makes an excellent differentiation play should any of those guys falter. Cincinnati’s defense isn’t as good as its numbers suggest.
CHALK: Jordy Nelson ($8,600), A.J. Green (($8,300)
Why: Nelson has scored four times in Green Bay’s last two games, and he gets Dallas’ secondary on Sunday for one of the week’s best matchups. Green has been hot lately, and Buffalo’s defense won’t scare that many away from him.
Jeffery hasn’t gotten a ton of national attention since coming over to Philadelphia this offseason. But he’s had a few impactful fantasy performances, and he’s averaging over 8 targets through the first four games of 2017.
Jeffrey has turned 34 targets into just 17 catches and two touchdowns, but I have a feeling about him and Wentz as an under the radar stack option this weekend. His anticipated matchup with Patrick Peterson should be negated by the 1PM eastern start for Arizona, and it should still be enough to keep his ownership below 9%.
Parker’s boom or bust style makes him a worthwhile tournament flier every weekend. He’s been pretty solid in each of Miami’s first three games though, and he has a great matchup against a Titans team that was absolutely torched by Houston and Deshaun Watson in Week 4.
I wouldn’t be surprised if Parker’s ownership exceeds 10% on Sunday, but if he can find the endzone he’ll be hugely valuable in the FanDuel Sunday Million either way.
CHALK: Travis Kelce ($7,000), Zach Ertz ($6,600)
Why: With Gronk playing Thursday and Jimmy Graham continuing to struggle (and screw me every week), Kelce and Ertz are really the only two reliable tight end options on Sunday.
Watson’s hype isn’t where it was after he caught all eight targets for 91 yards in Week 2, but with the rest of the crop at TE he remains a great pivot option on Sunday.
Watson had a questionable tag as late as Wednesday afternoon, so despite having his first favorable matchup since Week 2, his ownership should stay between 6% and 8%. If he plays, he could be one of the more valuable GPP options this week.
Engram racked up 11 targets in Week 4 after being looked to 19 times through New York’s first three games. Sunday’s matchup against the Chargers isn’t easy, but he’s been productive every week so far in 2017. I think Engram makes a great play in Week 5, regardless of his ownership, but that matchup should make him an attractive GPP option as well.