Many fantasy owners put a lot on emphasis on trying to identify sleepers and breakout candidates, however not drafting potential busts can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at several 2014 fantasy football busts or overvalued players not to draft too early, or avoid completely on draft day. If you have any draft day questions feel free to post them in our Fantasy Football Forum.
The reason Miles Austin is on this list is because I feel people might get overly excited about his situation and forget about his injury history. In terms of his situation it’s pretty good since he will have little competition for targets if he can stay healthy. At this point in his career though, that’s a big “IF”, and for that reason I don’t think he is worth the risk even in the middle late rounds. He will also more than likely have Johnny Football throwing him the ball and I have a feeling he is going to be a run first, throw second quarterback until he adjusts to the speed of the NFL.
Decker is a solid wide receiver, but he couldn’t have landed in a worst spot when it comes to fantasy value. It doesn’t take an expert to realize that his value will take a hit since he went from the best passing offense in the league, to one of the worst. Make sure you don’t fall in love with his stats from last year, thinking that he might be able to come close to those numbers again in 2014.
When it comes to talent I think Watkins is the best rookie receiver this year. However, in the fantasy world talent can only take you so far. Watkins finds himself in a terrible situation out in Buffalo and it’s hard to expect much out of a rookie receiver on a bad passing offense. I am sure he will make the highlight reel a good amount of times this year, but I am not expecting amazing fantasy numbers.
The wheels finally came off for Jackson last year and I expect the regression to continue. Most running backs hit a wall in their early 30s when it comes to fantasy value and it seems like Jackson hit that wall in 2013. The Falcons drafted Devonta Freeman as a backup plan for Jackson this year and in my opinion that was a smart move. Unless Jackson slips really far down in your draft, then I say you let someone else waste the pick.
I have seen Rudolph ranked ridiculously high in some other expert rankings and I am having a hard time understanding it. Even though he is a talented tight end, he has never had an amazing fantasy season and he will probably have a rookie throwing him the ball for most of the season. Rudolph will always be a big redone threat, but I don’t think he will get enough targets to justify ranking him in the top 10 for tight ends.
I like MJD just a little bit more than McFadden as we head into the 2014 football season, but that whole situation is still a giant mess. It’s going to be hard to predict how the carries will be distributed and at this point in his career you have to worry about injuries as well. I still like MJD as a gamble in the late middle rounds, but just make sure you don’t reach for him on draft day.
This is a tough one for me to write about because I was very impressed with what Jeffery did last year and I love his chances to have another solid season. All that being said, I think some people are going to remember more about what he did with Josh McCown instead of Jay Cutler. It seems like Cutler favors Marshall and doesn’t trust Jeffery as much as McCown, when it comes to just throwing it up and letting Jeffery go get it. I think Jeffery will have another solid year, but I think he will get slightly over-drafted.
Edelman was a target machine for the Patriots last year and this lead to him having over 100 catches. Let’s not forget though that Vereen, Amendola and Gronkowski all missed parts of last year. If even two of those three guys stay healthy all year then I don’t see Edelman having as big of an impact in 2014. He is a guy that certainly still has a decent upside, but for where he is going in most drafts I think he is too big of a gamble.
There is no denying that this young tight end is a freak of nature and an exciting young football player. That doesn’t always translate to a good fantasy player right out of the gate though. Rookie tight ends rarely have instant success and I have a feeling the Lions are going to ease him into the NFL a bit and limit his overall snaps. I expect him to make some big plays this season, but I would be surprised if he surpasses 50 catches this year.
Gerhart is in a great situation, but I don’t have a ton of faith in him having a monster year. I do however think he could have a good year and be over 1,000 total yards with decent touchdown and reception totals. All that being said I think he is being ranked too high by some other experts, because of his limited overall upside and the fact that he plays for a terrible team. I have seen him ranked as high as the 16th running back and I am not buying him at that price.