Many fantasy owners put a lot on emphasis on trying to identify sleepers and breakout candidates, however not drafting potential busts can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at several 2014 fantasy baseball busts or overvalued players not to draft too early, or avoid completely on draft day. If you have any draft day questions feel free to post them in our Fantasy Baseball Forum.
Johnson has had over 100 saves in the last two seasons and this has caused him to climb a lot of people’s draft boards. I have to say not so fast though, because save totals are more about opportunity than him actually pitching well. He blew 9 saves last year, had an ERA of almost 3, and he had well under a K per inning. Just make sure you don’t draft him purely because of his save totals. With his new home in Oakland I don’t think he will get anywhere close to 50 saves.
It seems like every year now we have a couple high profile foreign players that move to MLB and get a ton of media hype. Abreu is one of those players for 2014 and he already has lofty expectations from the fantasy world. It’s hard to deny his talent and what he was able to do in the Cuban leagues, but until I see what they can do in the big leagues I don’t think it’s a good idea to overpay for them on draft day.
Segura is one of the best young middle infielders in all of fantasy and if you want him on your team you will have to pay a hefty price on draft day. It’s easy to understand why he is getting drafted so early when you see his full stats from 2013, but his split stats are what have me worried. He was a top 10 fantasy player the first half of the season, however things went south after the all-star break. His stats were way down across the board the second half of the season and I think he is far from a guarantee to live up to his hype in 2014.
I understand the appeal with Profar, but it’s extremely rare for a 20 year old player to make a big splash in the fantasy world. Even though he does have a ton of upside, it’s hard for me to justify his average draft position. I think there is a good chance that he improves upon his numbers from 2013, but I don’t think he will be a big time fantasy player for a couple more years.
When it comes to overall talent, it’s hard not to like Rosenthal. His average draft position though has me a bit worried. He is getting drafted ahead of proven closers who have a solid track record and I think that’s a little scary. The Cardinals have a solid bullpen and Motte will be back from his injury at some point in 2014. If Rosenthal starts to slip even just a little, they might give the job back to a more experienced player.
Papelbon had a terrible year in 2013 when compared to his previous seasons. His ERA wasn’t the best, but the main story was his strikeout totals. He had under a K per inning for the first time in his career and that really scares me. I say stay away from him this year and let someone else take the gamble.
Brown is the perfect example of why you need to look at split stats so you can see the whole story. He had an amazing year when you look at his totals, but his split stats show a tale of two seasons. He had 23 home runs pre all-star break and only 4 post all-star break. Since it’s too hard to tell which Brown is going to show up, I think it’s best to let someone else draft him unless he slips in your draft.
I totally get the hype and I understand why people want Harper on their team, but it still doesn’t justify an average draft position inside the top 15 picks. In my mind it’s way to risky to pass up on all of the other proven talent that’s on the board at that time. At only 21 years old it might take a couple more years before Harper is an elite fantasy player, so keep that in mind on draft day.
The potential for Ellsbury this year is huge and that’s why he is getting drafted super early. Even though the potential is there, let’s not forget about all of the injury issues he has had throughout his career. Let’s also not forget that if you exclude his flukey 2011 season, he has never hit over 10 home runs in a season. In my opinion Ellsbury’s new home in NY doesn’t justify his average draft position.
I could just copy and paste what I wrote about him last year, but I guess I will write something new. With Hamilton it’s just too hard to look past the injuries and inconsistencies. His name alone causes him to get over-drafted and he rarely lives up to hype.