Back by popular demand is mine and Dustin’s bets from our rankings summit posted, videoed, and placed on the internet for the whole world to see. Now, I am going to try and be nice here as Dustin is the President of FantasySmackTalk, but I dominated him last year. (to the surprise of pretty much everyone, might I add – check out the results of last year’s bets)
But I digress, it was close, real close, I got Dustin last year by basically edging him out by less than one point on every bet. So this means if you listened to either of us you did pretty well overall.
This year’s ranking summit was no different as Dustin and I got into it and as always the only way to prove if you really think Player A will do better than Player B is to put your money where your mouth is. Below are some our favorite bets on the 2013 Fantasy Football season.
NOTE: All bets are based off our FST league scoring (.75 PPR / 4 Point Passing TD) and is who will have a better per game average with a minimum of 10 games played for each player in the bet.
Marshawn Lynch (Brent) vs Trent Richardson (Dustin)
This was our first bet made of the 2013 season and it took place prior to the rankings summit while we were discussing our projected top ten over a month ago. We made the bet and literally 30 seconds later we were moving Lynch to our 4th overall player this year. Needless to say, Dustin wishes he could have this one back. The reason we both like Lynch over Richardson (at this point) is the offense that surrounds him. Russell Wilson played lights out the second half and the additional of Percy Harvin will only open up things for Lynch. Trent Richardson has the complete opposite situation, sure Josh Gordon is a sleeper wideout but Richardson should see eight in the box literally every time the touches the ball.
Demaryius Thomas (Brent) vs Julio Jones (Dustin)
Demaryius Thomas and Julio Jones might be on the best two pass offenses, in terms of weapons, in the league. So this really comes down to whom will get the bigger share on their respective teams. Dustin made the case that there is simply not enough balls to go around in Denver with Wes Welker in town. Makes sense but, I believe my boy Welker, will take much more share from Eric Decker than Demaryius Thomas. Julio Jones still has to deal with Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez when fighting for targets. Last season, it seems as if the three took turns having monster fantasy weeks. When looking at the tape both of these guys are freak of natures but since John Fox is more of a conservative coach Dustin might have the slight edge on this one.
Steven Jackson (Brent) vs Matt Forte (Dustin)
I have seen Steven Jackson ranked all over the place but I am a huge fan of him this season. Just look at what he has done over the past 4 years on a St. Louis Rams team that gave him very little support. During that time he has rushed for over 1,000 each season and had over 300 yards receiving yards a game all while only missing two games during that span. The issue has been him finding the end zone. Which I believe will change quite a bit this season. Atlanta is a high powered offense that should score a ton of points and they love to run the ball in the red zone. If Michael Turner fell into the end zone double digit times each of the past four seasons for Atlanta then Jackson should at least match that total. The argument for Matt Forte is simple in a 0.75 point per reception league he could yield big numbers. He catches the ball a lot. Pair that with the fact he is moving to a new offense that should use the check-down quite a bit and he should go back to catching over 60 balls as he did his rookie season. Clearly, I am writing the article so have to point out the negative on Dustin’s guy as it needs to be noted that Michael Bush is still there in Chicago to vulture touchdowns. I suppose Rodgers is in Atlanta to vulture 3rd down catches. So this might come down to who gets the bigger share of work and I think that is Jackson.
Jay Cutler (Brent) vs E.J. Manuel (Dustin)
I am not going to spend too much time on this one. Manuel is not of the pedigree as Cam Newton, Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin III, and will not have that kind of breakout season. The only way I see him having monster games is on check-downs to C.J. Spiller and him taking it to the house. Jay Cutler on the other hand is not going to set the world on fire but he has a new offense to run, Brandon Marshall, and Matt Forte to check down to. Plus he is not a rookie. Sure Manuel has upside but I see this craziness of rookie QBs going nuts will end this year. (side note you might think this is a random bet but it just proves we spend time on ranking every possible player)
Reggie Bush (Brent) vs Ahmad Bradshaw (Dustin)
This debate came from Dustin’s absolute love for Ahmad Bradshaw. Man does he love that guy. When we were doing the rankings, he kept going back to him, stating “I think he is too low” now, we bumped him up but Mike and I did not let Dustin go nuts here (nuts being a relative term as he did not want him in the top 20 at the running back position) When looking at the numbers it is hard to totally hate on Bradshaw. He had over 1,250 yards and six touchdowns last year and has been pretty solid his entire career. To us he is the clear cut best back for the Colts which is an offense we think will be even better this year, so it makes sense Bradshaw could have a solid year. To me Reggie Bush has a higher ceiling in a 0.75 ppr league. I would not at all be surprised if Bush catches 80 balls on the Lions this year. That offense loves to spread it out so I see if Megatron is not open Stafford dumping off to Bush.
Chris Ivory (Brent) vs Rashard Mendenhall (Dustin)
Two backs that have new homes and both should have a chance to step right in and start. I took Ivory as he was always productive for the Saints when given the opportunity. Clearly, the New York Jets are not the Saints but Rex Ryan loves to run the ball and I think Ivory will have a ton of touches this year. Conversely, Mendenhall has been a feature back before and did excel at times. Sure, Dustin is nervous about that Cardinals offense line but they did improve it in the offseason. The main reason Dustin like Mendenhall is the fact he thinks the offense will be much improved overall in Arizona. Carson Palmer should have defenses worrying much more about the pass and therefore opening up more running lanes for the Cardinals in 2013.
Le’Veon Bell (Brent) vs Lamar Miller (Dustin)
These two guys are both listed on our sleeper video/article and for good reason. Lamar Miller is the favorite to take over the bulk of carries for the Dolphins. With the Dolphins adding Mike Wallace they really hope he stretches the field giving better running lanes for Miller. Le’Veon Bell is the rookie out of Michigan State and is a physical specimen. He is not going to break any extremely long runs but should be involved in the Steelers offense quite a bit. For a man of his size he has great hands and I expect him to find the end zone double digit times this year so I think I got this one locked up.