While fantasy baseball sleepers get most of the attention during the spring, identifying potential busts or overvalued players can be just as important when preparing for your draft. Not drafting busts, or avoiding paying too high for a player, can go a long way towards building a championship roster. Let’s take a look at a few players not to draft too early, or avoid completely, for your 2013 fantasy baseball draft.
Encarnacion had a career year last year and if you want to own him in 2013 then you are going to have to pay a premium. He is going with about the 30th pick right now and I think that’s a little early for a 30 year old player that just had his first big season. I think there is a decent chance he has another solid year, but I would much rather draft a younger guy that is on the rise or a more proven vet at that point in the draft.
I think Reddick could be a decent power specialist that you can grab later in the draft, but at this point I don’t think he is much more than that. His batting average was all over the place in the minors so I don’t like his potential for batting for average and he doesn’t throw in much speed. He is certainly a young guy with a lot of talent, but for where he is going in some drafts there are other guys that I think have more overall upside.
It’s not that I don’t think Motte could have another good year, I just don’t like who he is being drafted over. He is being ranked by a lot of other experts as a top 3 relief pitcher and at this point I am not willing to put him that high. The Cardinals seemed reluctant to hand over the job to Motte in 2011 and this scared me a bit with how much overall confidence they may or may not have in him. If he starts to slip I feel they might turn to another guy like Boggs in their pen to handle the 9th inning duties.
Sanchez is a decent fantasy pitcher, but at this point I think you have to ask yourself if he will ever have a great fantasy season. Personally I think Sanchez will always just be mediocre and I don’t think he is worth drafting unless he slips to one of the last couple of rounds. He is currently getting drafted around the 150th pick and at that point in the draft there are still a lot of younger pitchers that have much bigger upsides.
I know Harper is an exciting young player that has all the talent in the world, but even with that said I still don’t think he is worthy of a second round pick. He is currently going in the late second/early third round in most drafts and I think that’s way too risky at this point. If he played an infield position I could see justifying that draft position, but for an outfielder I just can’t see it. Obvisouly he could have a monster year, but at that point in the draft I say you stick with the more proven guys.
This young first basemen is one of the best young power hitters in the game, but he is getting too much love on draft day. With an average draft position around 40 I just can’t justify taking that gamble. He was all over the place in 2012 and I think he will battle consistency again this year as well. I would love to own Goldschmidt on my team this year, but unless he slips to the 50-60th pick I think I will let someone else take the gamble.
It seems like a lot of people are jumping back onto the Dan Haren bandwagon now that he is with the Nationals. The 32 year old pitcher has had some great years, but at this point in his career I would much rather take a gamble on a younger guy with a bigger upside. For example, he is getting drafted in front of guys like Brett Anderson, I would much rather take the younger guy and hope for the best.
Halladay is only one year removed from a great season, but at his age you have to ask yourself if his best years are behind him. His average draft position is currently pretty reasonable around 55, but he is still getting drafted around some solid young names. At that point in the draft I just think it’s a little risky to take the gamble that Halladay will return to his old form.
It’s pretty simple with why A-Rod is on this list, we say don’t touch him on draft day. I know a lot of leagues have a DL slot and you can put him on there and ride him out hoping he comes back in the summer, but this plan only works if everyone else on your team stays healhty. Holding onto a guy for that long will hurt your team in some way and even if you do wait him out he is not the same A-Rod. Leave him on the draft board on draft day.
Let me start by saying that I have always been a Headley fan and I have been waiting for this breakout season for a few years now. However, now that it has happened I don’t like the price that you have to pay to get this guy. He has been going around the 40th pick in most drafts and personally I think that’s a little scary for a guy that was so mediocre for so long. I certainly think he could do it again, but personally I don’t want to pay full price for him on draft day to find out.