Fantasy Smack Talk (FST) - Fantasy Sports Advice for Football, Baseball, and Basketball

2013-2014 Fantasy Basketball: Busts and Overvalued

By Dustin Barkley

Fantasy Analyst

(photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

Jameer Nelson is still a viable PG option, but the Magic have a lot of younger players expected to take on larger offense roles. (photo by Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports)

Fantasy owners often put a lot of emphasis on targeting the top sleepers, however not drafting potential busts can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at several players not to draft too early, or avoid completely, for your 2013-2014 fantasy basketball draft. If you have any draft day questions feel free to post them in our Fantasy Basketball Forum.

Jameer Nelson ORL | PG

Nelson had one of his best seasons of his career last year, but the rebuilding Magic will probably trade him at some point this season. The Magic drafted Oladipo who is a young talented guard that they are trying to develop in their future point guard, so all signs are pointing to Nelson getting traded. It’s hard to draft a player too high when you know there is a good chance that he will be on a different team at some point. You never know what type of situation they might land in and a lot of times with older players they go to good teams that are just looking to add depth.

Trey Burke UTA | PG

Burke is going to be on everyone’s sleeper list this year and I think this could cause him to be slightly over drafted. He is locked in as the starting point guard so he will see a lot of time on the court, but I just don’t see him putting up great fantasy stats. Unless he slips a bit in your draft I think you let someone else draft this overhyped rookie. While he is a good player I just don’t think he is going to be a great fantasy player right out of the gate.

Danny Granger IND | SG

At 30 years old it’s possible that Granger can return to his old form, for my money though I am not willing to pay the price to find out. He is coming off of an injury plagued season and coming back to a team that now relies on Paul George as their superstar. When you combine his injury history with his decline in production over the last few years, I think he is a guy to be very cautious with on draft day.

Andre Iguodala GS | SF

Iggy has been a great fantasy players for many years and a lot of people are going to draft him in the middle rounds thinking that he will put up his normal stellar numbers. It’s extremely crowed in Golden State right now and it’s hard to say exactly how Iggy is going to fit in. I think it’s possible that he could match his numbers from a year ago, but for where you are going to have to draft him on draft day I would rather take a younger guy with a bigger upside. He is certainly worth drafting in all leagues, just be careful and make sure he slips far enough before you think about taking him.

DeAndre Jordan LAC | C

Jordan has been in the league for a few years now and at this point you have to be asking yourself is he anything more than a role player. He has never averaged over 9 points or 9 rebounds in a season and while he does throw in some blocks he doesn’t do much else. He is still worth drafting in the later rounds but at this point I don’t think he is anything more than a role player blocks and rebound guy.

Alex Len PHO | C

When doing your pre-draft research you will certainly run across Len as a rookie center to pay attention to. While I do agree you should pay attention to him, I don’t think you should reach very far for him on draft day. The 5th overall pick in this year’s draft does have some talent, but his minutes will be limited with Gortat ahead of him in the depth chart. He has a limited overall upside unless there is an injury to Gortat, so don’t get too excited about Len on draft day. Editor’s Note: Gortat was traded to the Wizards, which should open up a clear path to minutes for Lin.

Amare Stoudemire NY | PF

In limited minutes last year Stoudemire had decent numbers, but at this point in his career I don’t think he can stay healthy long enough to help your fantasy team. I would be surprised if he plays much more than 20 minutes per game and I doubt he will even stay healthy for half the season. The years of Amare being a great fantasy player are over and he is no more than a late late round gamble these days.

Andrei Kirilenko BRK | SF

The days of AK-47 being an amazing fantasy basketball stat filler are behind him and I don’t like his upside this year. I think he could still be a decent fantasy player, but it’s so crowded now in Brooklyn, it’s going to be hard for him to find a lot of time on the court. Kirilenko is nothing more than a role player, so make sure you take that into account on draft day.

Ray Allen MIA | SG

Allen can still stand behind the 3 point line and knock down treys, but that’s about all he offers in terms of fantasy value. There is always someone that panics towards the end of their draft, sees Ray Allen’s name and drafts him. Don’t be that guy. Even if there is an injury to one of the big three in Miami I don’t think Allen could handle playing a ton of minutes each night.

Jimmy Butler CHI | SG

I am a fan of Butler but, I think people are going to remember how he finished last year and think he will pickup right where he left off. In April last year he averaged almost 15 points per game and close to 7 rebounds. I don’t think he will put up those type of numbers with a healthy Rose on the team and I also don’t think he will play as many minutes as he was down the stretch. He averaged over 40 minutes per game in April and this skewed his production. I think Butler could certainly average over 10 points a game with a decent amount of rebounds, I just don’t see him matching his numbers from April for the entire season.

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