Everyone loves a sleeper but staying away from those overvalued players is just as important when it comes to winning a fantasy football championship. Below is a list of 10 players that are going a little too high for our liking. We suggest letting someone else take them at their current average draft position and grab guys with not so many question marks.
Manningham parlayed his playoff run/big Superbowl catch into a new contract with a new team, the San Francisco 49ers. Many people are expecting him to be on the field a ton as he does not have to compete with Nicks or Cruz for playing time but the 49ers have Crabtree and now old man Randy Moss. We don’t necessary think Manningham is the odd man out in two WR sets but, there could certainly be less balls to go around with those two and Vernon Davis. Furthermore, the Giants were dead last in rushing last year simply since Eli threw the ball so much – that is not the case with Alex Smith. Smith did get better last year but San Fran still is an old school run first, pound the ball team which does not help Manningham’s fantasy value.
The Skins paid a ton to get Garcon on the team to have him grow with Griff (he hates RGIII) but that does not necessary mean that chemistry will start right off the bat. Last season he was productive catching 70 balls and almost breaking 1000 yards however, a good deal of those stats came in the second half when teams were in prevent defense against the Colts after being up by so much in the first half. He is a talented wideout but we don’t see Griffin breaking 225 passing yards a game so with Moss and Fred Davis still out there it is hard to imagine a monster season out of Garcon. Don’t overpay for him in your fantasy draft like the Skins did.
Remember this article is titled bust/overvalued. Of course with Peyton in town the talented Thomas could have a great season but he is still unproven. In early mock drafts Thomas’ ADP has him going over some proven great wideouts that have already had productive NFL seasons. We are not saying he is going to do terrible but why take the risk on Thomas over guys that have already shown they can be extremely productive for any fantasy team.
We just had a twitter battle with Yahoo’s Brad Evans about this guy. Evans and a ton of people love him just because he played with Luck in college but, does not mean he is going to be a monster. Heck, he was not that productive in college with him. Luck and Fleener connected on 10 touchdowns (that is nice) last year however, Fleener only caught a total of 34 passes. NFL teams are much quicker and faster and we believe those TDs will not be there this season for them. Someone is going to wait on a Tight End in your draft and when they take Fleener he/she is going to yell “sleeper!” – send them his article before the season and then after with the subject line – I told you so.
Jackson did end last season with solid numbers (1106 yards and 9 scores) but he is no longer in pass happy San Diego. Jackson finally got paid and has moved to Tampa Bay where he will pair up with Josh Freeman. Freeman still has Mike Williams and has acquired Jackson, Dallas Clark, and rookie Doug Martin in the off season. Great news for Freeman but not so great for Jackson. We feel Vincent will be a solid fantasy player (if you can deal with how hit or miss he is – in a non-ppr league he would have scored 7 points or less in 9 games last year) but not worthy of anything above a high middle round pick in standard 10 team leagues.
Boldin is more of name now that anything. Since coming to Baltimore he has never eclipsed 900 receiving yards and we don’t see that tread breaking this season. Flacco is an average quarterback and now has a new favorite target in Torrey Smith. Don’t panic in the middle rounds and grab Boldin simply based on his name – get a guy with a much higher upside.
Even prior to his DUI arrest we where not that high on Blackmon. His quarterback averaged less than 150 passing yards a game last season. That is just terrible. Gabbert throws ducks every other pass and Blackmon might be the guy that see the double coverage all year long. There is no rookie wideout we are thrilled about this year and Blackmon should be the first off the board, it should just be towards the very end of a draft (which is not happening right now)
Steven Jackson is an animal but even animals can hit a wall. Jackson has had a ton of touches over the last 8 seasons and that has to start to take a toll on him. He will be 29 this July so not quite at the dreaded 30 for backs but he has more wear on this tires than any 29 or even 32 year old back in the league. Furthermore, St. Louis does not do a good job in the red zone so teams just stack the box against Jackson. Over the past three seasons he is just averaging a little over 5 TDs per year – which does not cut it for a running back going as high as he is.
Why is Hillis getting any kind of respect? Did anyone see last year? Sure he was a little banged up but it was an ugly year, as Hillis went from 13 touchdowns in 2011, to just 3 last season. Another factor is that Jaamal Charles is expected to be back and ready to go for the opener. Charles is the man out in KC with Hillis not much more than a goal line vulture in our eyes but he is certainly not being drafted that way.
The Law Firm (yes it is a money nickname, little overplayed at this point but never the less still money) averaged 3.7 yards a carry on New England. The same New England team that had defenses in a dime defense for pretty much the entire game because they did not want to be shredded by Tom Brady (dime defense = six defensive backs in the secondary which leaves holes for the run game). Green-Ellis is not going to see that same defense on Cincy so we are not banking on him doing any better. Also Scott is going get carries making this committee situation. Just stay away from the Law-Firm this year unless it is extremely late.