Everyone loves to think about drafting the top sleepers, however, not drafting the busts, or avoiding paying too high for a player can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. Let’s take a look at a few players not to draft too high, or avoid completely, for your 2012-2013 fantasy basketball draft.
Ginobili averaged 23 minutes, 12.9 points, 3.4 boards last season which were all lowest averages since his rookie season. We believe it is finally happening the Spurs top guys (Manu and Duncan) since they are getting just too old to relay on them night to night in fantasy basketball. Not only has the production gone down but the random nights off will happen all the time as Pop will sit his aging stars what seems like every chance he gets. The Spurs are playing for the playoffs and championships only so we would rather see you try to grab a young guy with upside rather than one of these aging stars.
Linsanity caught the world by storm last year and in the month of February he averaged an amazing 20.9 points, 8.4 assists, 4.0 boards, 2.1 steals a game (also 5.0 turnovers). Upon Melo’s return to the Knicks’ line-up those numbers went down to under 15 points and just over 6 assists per game. If you are drafting Lin thinking you have found the next 20-10 point guard you are mistaken. The pick and roll offense the Rockets run does suit Lin’s skill set however, the latter numbers is what one can assume is how Lin will finish this season and those numbers are certainly not worthy of a top 25 pick.
Roy is coming off a year that he sat out and retired from the game of basketball due to knee issues, so clearly, health is a concern when drafting this former All-Star. Sure, the name alone will get him drafted as a supposed “value pick” in the mid-rounds but one must remember what he did the last time he was playing. In 2011 Roy played in 47 games while averaging 28 minutes a contest. During that time frame he was a 12 point scorer and not even getting 3 assists nor boards a game. This is a far way off his 25, 5, 5 days and those days are well behind him. Let someone else panic and take Roy while you grab someone with much higher upside for production in the middle rounds.
Please note this article is Bust/Overvalued so we are not saying Howard is going to be a terrible fantasy player but we are saying he is not worthy of a first round pick anymore. The simple reason is he will not be asked to do as much. Dwight has Kobe there to take shots, Gasol there to grab boards, and Nash to throw him ally oops (ok the last one is a reason to like him a little bit more and I cannot wait to see Showtime back to LA). Side note, am I the only one that is rooting for Kobe to win one more after hating him for so many years. I now realize it is the end soon and I will miss the second greatest shooting guard in NBA history behind Jordan.
With the departure of Big Baby Glen Davis many assume that Bass’ role with the Celtics will grow and he will get all the minutes left behind but not so fast. Bass averaged close to 34 minutes a game last April while putting up 13.5 points and 7 boards a game – the departure of Davis will not increase his minutes as some might expect. Also the Celtics drafted Jared Sullinger that slipped to them in the draft due to knee concerns that could take some minutes. Bass is the perfect guy that everyone will target as a sleeper that you should let someone else reach for in your draft.
Sure Iggy was great on the Olympic team since he did the dirty work, played great defense, and filled up the stat sheet but for your fantasy team he is going way too early. This former rock solid second round pick (in fantasy) has seen his scoring production decrease every year since the 2007-2008 season going from 19 points per game all the way down to under 13 last year. This season he has a new home in Denver with Faried and McGee to gobble up the boards and two scoring guards in Lawson and Gallinari. Now of course Iggy will still produce but not at the rate of where you will probably have to take him in your upcoming draft.
As a former staple of the Bullets, I do have a soft spot for Jamison and happy he went to the Lakers to chase a championship but I digress as this is about his fantasy value. Jamison held back father time last season with the Cavs as he averaged 17.2 points and almost 7 boards per contest. The main reason for this was the fact that beside Irving, there was no one else there to do anything on that team. Fantasy basketball is sometimes just as much about opportunity as it is about talent. Headed into this season Jamison is coming off the bench and will take far less shots a game. Don’t get caught up with his numbers last season and draft Jamison in the middle rounds this season.
Someone in your draft is going to see the name Tim Duncan in the early middle rounds of your draft, take him, and think they got a steal. Alas I am not 20 years anymore and Tim Duncan no longer is the offense for the Spurs. Tony Parker took over last year as the man out there and while Duncan is still a solid role player he is not worth the middle rounds. Sure, a 15 point 9 board season can be achieved again but remember this when drafting him – head coach Gregg Popovich will be resting Duncan as the Spurs head into the real NBA playoffs as you are playing in your fantasy playoffs.
I cannot wait to see how Allen is greeted the first time he heads back to the Garden – I suppose if you cant beat’em join’em phase goes here. In terms of his fantasy basketball value you have to think it goes down. Allen is simply a role player coming off the bench for the Heat. Sure, he will see wide open looks but no chance he averages his 34 minutes a game he saw last season. Think of him as no more than a role player three point specialist in deeper leagues.
I am not sure why so many other sites are getting so excited for JaVale McGee this year. I know he is younger but he has been in the league for five years playing big minutes in the past – we have seen the best out of McGee. Due to his blocks and boards he is fantasy relevant but the fact he is a sleeper or undervalued for many other sites is just crazy. I am a huge Bullets fan and watched this guy for years – he is a freak of nature with his size and jumping ability but he will never be a scorer in this league. No back to the basket game nor jumper to be seen. Proceed with caution and let someone else reach for McGee this year.