The 2011-2012 fantasy basketball season is just around the corner and everyone loves to think about drafting the top sleepers. However, not drafting the busts, or avoiding paying too high for a player can go a long way towards helping you build a championship roster. This article will discuss various players not to draft too high, or avoid completely, for your fantasy basketball draft.
Duncan still has the potential to put up decent numbers, but I don’t think he will get enough minutes to even match his numbers from a year ago. His minutes played per game have gone down every year since the 05-06 season, and I expect another decline. Duncan is still worth owning in most leagues, but I am not expecting much from him this year.
Camby enters the 2011-2012 as a huge injury risk for any fantasy team. He is now 37 years old, and you have to ask yourself how much does he have left in the tank. If he gets the minutes he can still rack up the blocks and rebounds, but I don’t think the risk is worth the reward.
There were times last year when it looked like Garnett was going to have a leg just fall off when he was running down the court. He still managed to play over 31 minutes per game, and only miss 11 games during the season. His numbers weren’t that bad, but at this point in his career I would let someone else take the gamble. Normally Garnett will get drafted a little early because of his name, I strongly suggest you don’t be the person that does it.
Everyone is going to remember how well Walker played in the NCAA tourney, and I think this could move him up higher on draft boards than he should be. His talents should translate to the NBA, but I am not sold he will see enough playing time to make a big fantasy impact this season. D.J. Augustin saw a huge jump in minutes and production, and I fully expect him to be the guy for the Bobcats. As long as Augustin is playing well I don’t think Walker will get any more than 25 minutes per game.
If the only categories that counted in fantasy basketball were points and 3s, then Redick would have decent value. However that is not the case, and filling up the stat sheet is something the Redick is not going to do. Redick averaged over 25 mins per game last year, and if you add up is rebounds, assists, 3s made, steals, and blocks the grand total would only be 5.7. Even if Redick starts and plays over 30 minutes per game I think he has a limited upside in fantasy.
You might call us crazy for saying Griffin is overvalued, but this year we think you need to be careful with him. Let’s not forget the major knee injury that caused him to miss his entire rookie year, and the fact that he is a big man that doesn’t get blocks. Griffin is going to be huge with points and rebounds, but with his injury history and lack of blocks this makes him a scary early pick. I still think he is worthy of a late first or early second round pick, but just don’t go crazy and draft him in the mid first.
At this point Davis is a huge question mark that I am staying far away from on draft day. I don’t like him if he stays in Cleveland, because there is no reason for them not to go with Irving and the youth movement. If he does get kicked out of Cleveland then I doubt he will see even close to 30 minutes a game on any team. Davis is only 32 years old, but I don’t think he will be any more than a role player for the rest of his career.
Bibby has a new home in New York but we aren’t excited about his potential this year. He hasn’t put up decent numbers since 08-09, and I don’t see him ever going back to a fantasy relevant player. Bibby might get a decent amount of minutes off the bench, but we suggest leaving Bibby on your draft boards on draft day.
Fredette is a fun player to watch, and everyone is going to remember what he did last year in the NCAA tournament. This will more than likely mean that he will go a little too early in most drafts. He is going to come off the bench behind Thornton, and I don’t see Fredette being anymore than a role player this year. He should offer decent value when it comes to 3s and points, but I don’t think he will play enough minutes to fill up the stat sheet.
Brand had a nice bounce back year last seasons after 5 straight years of declining numbers. During that 5 year span he battled a lot of injuries, but he has been able to stay fairly healthy over the last 2 years. All that being said I think Brand is a big risk for where you have to take him in the draft. He is an aging injury risk, and I think he will be lucky to just match his numbers from last year.
If you have any fantasy basketball questions about a sleepers, busts, or who to draft, feel free to post them in our Fantasy Sports Forum.